Latest Prices of Nickel
Nickel prices have been even more inconsistent for the past few months. Up until 2025, nickel prices had recovered somewhat from the shocking decline that could be glimpsed around mid-2023, stimulated by surplus and declining metal buying needs throughout China. London Metal Exchange bench-mark prices have fluctuated between roughly $16,000 and around $17,500 for every metric ton — light years away from that peak of around $100,000 that might have been glimpsed around the start of the Russia-Ukraine war back in 2022.
Key price drivers of recent times are:
- Higher production from Indonesia, for its own part, has underwritten nickel pig iron (NPI) as well as high-pressure acid leach (HPAL) production.
- Soft market conditions of the largest consumer of nickel, namely, the stainless steel market.
- Moderate increases of demand because of the electric vehicle (EV) market, as battery chemistry is gradually shifting from being nickel-based to LFP (lithium iron phosphate) chemistry.
Nickel metal prices continue being an echo of the struggle between short term over-supply and long term bullish potential demand. Prices will continue being volatile through 2025 as the market struggles to achieve balance.
Global Supply and Demand Dynamics
The world nickel chain is structurally changing. Indonesia hasalso emerged as the largest producer in the world, producing approximately 48% of everything that is mined globally. The bonanza, of class 2 nickel for conversion to stainless steel, has pushed the market into surplus, which has given nickel headlines for a large part of 2024.
But the demand side also has something to say. The market share held by giants such as Tesla, CATL, and BYD is still investing heavily in nickel-based battery technologies (NMC and NCMA, for example). Nickel battery demand increased around 12–15% year over year in 2024 and will continue to expand as the world witnesses increasing EV usage.
While simultaneously, decelerating factory production in China capped off short-term consumption, and Europe’s power-consuming industries have trimmed production because of climbing energy costs.
Both of these against-trends — surplus production and long-run green energy needs — are forming a split market. Class 1, quality grade nickel, ready for purchase by battery producers, is scarcer than class 2, poorer grade.
Impact of Geopolitical Events
Geopolitical developments remain the main impetus of the nickel market’s nature. Sanctions against Russia, once the largest exporting market for nickel, upset delivery corridors and triggered price spikes that had speculative undertones as early as 2022. As selective buying has reopened under other delivery corridors, Western consumers have been eager for origin diversification of supplies, stimulating investment for Indonesian and Australian projects.
U.S. Inflation Reduction Act as well as EU Critical Raw Materials Act are also shaping world nickel trade. Both laws favor domestic and allied sourcing, pushing Western car companies to cooperate with suppliers other than those that are Chinese.
American-China trade tensions have only compounded that complexity. Chinese dominance of nickel refining — of the process of transforming class 2 nickel into battery-grade, for example — affords it vast power around the world’s battery value chains.
More recently, investment into North American refinery capacity is becoming increasingly prominent, as Asian-processing dependence-reducing joint ventures have started between the United States and Canada.
Environmental and Sustainability Factors
Environmental attention for nickel mining is growing. Legacy mining, as well as tropical mining as can also be seen in Indonesia and the Philippines, has been criticized for deforestation, water pollution, and social effects. This HPAL method that is being used for Indonesian nickel mines is extremely carbon- and waste-intensive.
Major producers have been investing into responsible mining. These include companies like Vale, BHP, and Sumitomo Metal Mining, who have set their goals for mine sites for net zero by incorporating renewable power, recycling tech, as well as carbon capture.
In fact, automotive and battery industries are becoming increasingly selective for ESG-quality nickel, and an emerging segment of premiums is being developed. Already, Tesla has announced its intention of purchasing responsible mine nickel as part of its broader efforts for sustainability.
Recycling is also an increasingly relevant consideration. Secondary nickel from battery recycling and even scrap from stainless steel could contribute 20-25% of 2030 supply, decreasing environment impacts as well as risk along the supply chain.
Future Market Prospects
Nickel market outlook is positioning for intricate growth. Short term surplus and market pressure for prices are going to persist to 2025, or even more definitively, should Indonesia accelerate its brisk expansion of its production. However, midterm and long term are positioning for positive, considering expansionary electric car demand and scarce battery-grade nickel supply.
Areas of attention to watch for:
- Indonesia’s changing export policy and value-added production objectives.
- Western investment into refineries and recycling facilities.
- Technological advances for recovery, and battery chemistry.
- ESG procurement strategies reddefining brings.
According to BloombergNEF, the world would double or triple its requirements for nickel by 2040, and electric vehicles would take as large as 50% of its production. To balance that surge, the world would require less nickel, but rather cleaner, responsibly extracted nickel — an imperative that would guide the sector for the rest of the decade.
FAQ
What is happening to nickel?
Nickel is experiencing structural change. Excluding the 2022 supply- driven price spike, the market is experiencing its opposite, i.e., of oversupply, primarily from Indonesia, and below-expected industrial buying. All the same, long-term fundamentals are still strong on the basis of the metal’s strategic importance to battery use for electric vehicles and to the world’s energy transition.
Is nickel a good investment right now?
It is risk-high, return-high investment for nickel these days. Prices are pressured by surplus, but the outlook for the longer term is encouraging. Investor attention needs to go into ESG-certifying producers and battery-grade nickel value chains, where growth of requirements and premiums is predicted.
Does nickel have a future?
Indeed, nickel’s future is the core of the green economy. It has applications in high-energy-density batteries, catering to growing market requirements, foremost of which are the electric car and battery storage sectors. To ensure that future, however, the sector must address concerns of sustainability, geopolitics, and supply chain.
Is nickel price going up?
In the shorter term, nickel prices could stay down or fluctuate around narrow bands as supplies exceed requirements. Nevertheless, most analysts forecast price pressure for the second half of the decade as incremental, sustainable supplies remain behind building emerging requirements, led mainly for class 1 nickel for battery applications.
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